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Trade Forex in secure way

It may be surprising to know that there are international regulations for Forex Trading to be followed. Majority of forex traders do not follow the guidelines. It will be safe because maintaining records and compliant to rules and...


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Trade minister Conor Burns resigns over 'veiled threats' in letter

Conor Burns used his position as an MP to intimidate a member of the public, standards watchdog finds.


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Trade talks between UK and US set to get under way

Ministers say they will drive a "hard bargain" but Labour say they must be "wary" of President Trump.


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Trader says 'no guidance, no problem' for this medical device company—Here's why

Is Abbott Labs a buy? With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Pete Najarian and Steve Grasso.


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Traders are carefully watching for gold's next move

The strongest historical support level for gold is near $1,210 and traders will prepare for a potential rebound from there, writes Daryl Guppy.


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Trader with golden catch-up play using options

A gold move, with Mike Khouw. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Options Action Traders, Carter Worth and Tony Zhang.


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Trader lays out how to play Activision Blizzard ahead of earnings

Tony Zhang on a bearish Activision trade. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Options Action Traders, Carter Worth and Mike Khouw.


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Trader lays out how to play Tesla's wild moves this month

What to do after a wild week for Tesla. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Options Action traders, Carter Worth, Mike Khouw and Tony Zhang.


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Trader Tony Zhang lays out bullish bet on debt using high-yield market

A high-yield options play. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Options Action traders, Carter Worth, Mike Khouw and Tony Zhang.


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Trader bets gold about to get its shine back

Bullion bounces back. Can gold shine again? With CNBC's Seema Mody and the Futures Now traders, Jim Iuorio at the CME and Anthony Grisanti at the NYMEX.


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Trader lays out the next key catalysts for bitcoin

Key catalysts for bitcoin, with CNBC's Seema Mody and the Futures Now traders, Jim Iuorio and Scott Nations, both at the CME.


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Here's what one top economist sees ahead for the Fed and US-China trade

Trade with China is the 'big unknown' for the Federal Reserve as it decides how best to support the U.S. economy, says Council on Foreign Relations Director of International Economies Benn Steil.


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Traders grapple to find the bottom as Dow enters bear market territory with S&P 500 not far behind

The S&P 500 is in bear market territory but it's difficult to predict a market bottom. Typical metrics do not apply in this very unusual situation.


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Traders recap scary week on Wall Street and see more wild times ahead

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange swapped stories all week about the extreme trading conditions they witnessed.


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Fed's Barkin doubts likelihood of negative rates even though the market is pricing them in

Traders on Thursday priced in a negative federal funds rate by December 2020, lasting at least to January 2022


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Trade groups representing PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble and others want guidance on factories from Pence

Trade groups representing the country's biggest consumer companies, including PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble and Clorox, wrote a letter to Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday urging federal guidance on how to safely manage their factory workers as states begin to reopen for business.


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Trader Joe's Flunks Sustainable Seafoods 101 (Again)

C'mon, you know a Trader Joe's addict or two, don't you? It's sometimes impossible to resist the combination of lower prices and lots of organic and even Fair


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Trade and borders: A reset for U.S.-Mexico relations in the Trump era?

Trade integration has been a central element of U.S.-Mexico relations for the past quarter century. The renegotiation of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) presented a formidable challenge for two neighboring countries who also manage a complex border agenda including immigration and drug control. As President Trump considered terminating NAFTA and continues to press…

       


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Trade Policy Review 2016: Russian Federation

Each Trade Policy Review consists of three parts: a report by the government under review, a report written independently by the WTO Secretariat, and the concluding remarks by the chair of the Trade Policy Review Body. A highlights section provides an overview of key trade facts. 15 to 20 new review titles are published each […]

      
 
 


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Trade Policy Review 2016: Tunisia

Each Trade Policy Review consists of three parts: a report by the government under review, a report written independently by the WTO Secretariat, and the concluding remarks by the chair of the Trade Policy Review Body. A highlights section provides an overview of key trade facts. 15 to 20 new review titles are published each […]

      
 
 


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Trade Policy Review 2016: Sierra Leone

Each Trade Policy Review consists of three parts: a report by the government under review, a report written independently by the WTO Secretariat, and the concluding remarks by the chair of the Trade Policy Review Body. A highlights section provides an overview of key trade facts. 15 to 20 new review titles are published each […]

      
 
 


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Trade Policy Review 2016: The Democratic Republic of the Congo

Each Trade Policy Review consists of three parts: a report by the government under review, a report written independently by the WTO Secretariat, and the concluding remarks by the chair of the Trade Policy Review Body. A highlights section provides an overview of key trade facts. 15 to 20 new review titles are published each […]

      
 
 


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Trade Policy Review 2016: Korea

Each Trade Policy Review consists of three parts: a report by the government under review, a report written independently by the WTO Secretariat, and the concluding remarks by the chair of the Trade Policy Review Body. A highlights section provides an overview of key trade facts. 15 to 20 new review titles are published each […]

      
 
 


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Trade secrets shouldn’t shield tech companies’ algorithms from oversight

Technology companies increasingly hide the world’s most powerful algorithms and business models behind the shield of trade secret protection. The legitimacy of these protections needs to be revisited when they obscure companies’ impact on the public interest or the rule of law. In 2016 and 2018, the United States and the European Union each adopted…

       


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Trade secrets shouldn’t shield tech companies’ algorithms from oversight

Technology companies increasingly hide the world’s most powerful algorithms and business models behind the shield of trade secret protection. The legitimacy of these protections needs to be revisited when they obscure companies’ impact on the public interest or the rule of law. In 2016 and 2018, the United States and the European Union each adopted…

       


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Trade secrets shouldn’t shield tech companies’ algorithms from oversight

Technology companies increasingly hide the world’s most powerful algorithms and business models behind the shield of trade secret protection. The legitimacy of these protections needs to be revisited when they obscure companies’ impact on the public interest or the rule of law. In 2016 and 2018, the United States and the European Union each adopted…

       


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APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade Issue Statement on COVID-19

Trade Ministers agree to work together towards a healthy, resilient and inclusive Asia-Pacific community.


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Traders bet on calendar spread as Nifty moves in a tight range

A trading combination involving Nifty options is gaining prominence among savvy trading desks of institutional investors.


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Trade worries drive Dow, S&P down

The S&P 500 and the Dow fell on Wednesday but the Nasdaq ended higher. The indexes pulled back late in the session after U.S. President Donald Trump said China may or may not keep a trade deal between the two countries. Fred Katayama reports.


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Trade Impact of Reducing Time and Costs at Borders in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region

Trade facilitation, by reducing trade costs and raising the efficiency of moving goods across borders, is integral to international trade.


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Traders reject govt lockdown easing plan

ISLAMABAD: The traders community of the country has rejected government's plans to ease lockdown in the country saying the Prime Minister's announcements have created further confusion."Instead of...

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Trade Representative Kirk Outlines Asia-Focused Trade Agenda at East-West Center’s USAPC Washington Conference

Trade Representative Kirk Outlines Asia-Focused Trade Agenda at East-West Center’s USAPC Washington Conference

U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk


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Trade tensions hit South Korea FDI

The situation between the US and China is bad news for South Korea’s investment climate.


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Trade and commerce in Sindhu-Saraswati civilisation: Know about the Srenis or guilds of ancient India

Since our FM mentioned the Sindhu-Saraswati civilisation or the Harappan culture, it is prudent that we start our journey from there.


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Trade meeting result: US to take U-turn on car tariffs for now

The Trump administration will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports as top officials weigh revisions to a report on the national security implications, according to two people familiar with the matter.


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Trade body rejects claim flame retardants prevent furniture ‘circularity’

Goal is to meet highest performance standards, BSEF says


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EU Commission aerosols approach ‘re-invents physics’ for CLP

Trade association says proposal misunderstands complexity of spray formation


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Trade unions want timeline for employers on delayed contributions to EPFO

Trade unions are of the view that the retirement fund body should set a definite timeline for employers to deposit the money already deducted from employee’s monthly salary.


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Need govt push for MSMEs to benefit if India capitalizes on exodus of factories from China, says SBI

Trade, import and export for MSMEs: For India to benefit from the relocation of factories and companies from China, the MSME sector is likely to play a key role. This is particularly for food product manufacturing sector where India lacks competitiveness in exports.


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Trade can spread economic toll of local disasters globally, study finds

Damage from a natural disaster in one place can spread globally due to urban trade networks, a Yale study said Monday.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in Vietnam

10 December 2014

While the Vietnamese government has made some progress towards tackling illegal logging and the associated trade, there has been little progress in policy reform, and there is still no legislation regulating illegal timber imports.

Jade Saunders

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

20141210IllegalTimberVietnamSaunders.jpg

A motoryclist rides past a private wood processing workshop, Vietnam. Photo by Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. 

The Vietnamese government has made some progress towards tackling illegal logging and the associated trade. It has negotiated a voluntary partnership agreement (VPA) with the EU, a process that has prompted a review of relevant legislation and improved the government’s engagement with civil society. In addition, it has signed agreements with Lao PDR and Cambodia in which it has committed to coordination on forest management and trade. However, there has been little progress in policy reform, and there is still no legislation regulating illegal timber imports.

There is a high level of awareness of illegal logging and associated trade within the private sector: Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) chain-of-custody (CoC) certification has increased rapidly, particularly in the furniture sector. But efforts are hampered by poor access to third-party verified raw material.

Both trade data discrepancies and analysis of trade flows indicate that illegal trade remains a serious problem. The volume of imports of wood-based products at a high risk of illegality is estimated to have increased since 2000, while its share in the volume of total imports of wood-based products gradually declined until 2009 and then increased slightly: they are estimated to have comprised 18 per cent of the total by volume in 2013.

In order to build on its response to illegal logging and related trade, the government should establish a legal responsibility for Vietnamese importers to ensure that their timber sources are legal. Furthermore, to increase domestic demand for legal products, it should establish a public procurement policy requiring the use of verified legal products. Within the framework of the VPA, broad and effective multi-stakeholder engagement will be vital to ensure that a robust timber legality assurance system is developed. In addition, proactive partnerships should be forged with high-risk supply countries to establish legality criteria and indicators that reflect the full scope of the relevant legislation in those countries.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in China

10 December 2014

Although the Chinese government and private sector have taken action to tackle illegal logging and associated trade, there is evidence to suggest illegal trade remains a significant problem.

Laura Wellesley

Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

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Two plantation workers at the lumber storage yard in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Jilin Province, China. Photo by Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. The Chinese government has made notable progress in its efforts to tackle illegal logging and the associated trade. This has included the development of a draft national timber legality verification system (TLVS) and its active engagement with a number of consumer countries. The government’s plans to establish bilateral trade agreements with producer countries are also encouraging, although no formalized commitments have yet been made. Reflecting the growing awareness of the impact of Chinese companies overseas, the government has also been developing further guidance to promote sustainable forest products trade and investment.

The private sector is also taking action, with continued growth in the uptake of chain-of-custody (CoC) certification. Industry associations have been promoting legal and sustainable sourcing, and they will have an important role to play in testing the draft TLVS.

These steps are likely to have had an impact on the volume of illegal wood-based products being imported into China. However, trade data discrepancies and analysis of trade flows both indicate that illegal trade remains a significant problem. While imports of high-risk products are estimated to have declined since 2000, these are reckoned to comprise 17 per cent of the total by volume in 2013. This proportion is high compared with other timber-importing countries examined in this assessment.

In order to build on its response to illegal logging and related trade, the Chinese government should establish binding regulations and stringent controls on the import and export of illegal wood-based products. The draft TLVS should be further developed, including through pilot projects with timber-exporting countries and effective consultation with industry, civil society and other consumer-country governments. The government’s procurement policy should be strengthened through the clarification of its legality and sustainability requirements, the inclusion of a wider range of products within its scope, and the development of a robust mechanism to monitor compliance. 

Increased training for the private sector on due diligence, market regulations and legality requirements in consumer countries is required to stimulate further action by industry, and the work to elaborate further guidelines for companies operating overseas in the forest products trade should be continued. Awareness-raising initiatives for Chinese consumers should also be extended, in order to increase demand for verified legal wood-based products.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in the Netherlands

25 November 2014

 While the Netherlands has been one of the most proactive European countries in addressing illegal logging and the related trade, a key challenge will be effective enforcement of the EU Timber Regulation given the country’s role as a major conduit for timber to the rest of Europe.

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. 

The Netherlands has shown a strong response to the problem of illegal logging and related trade: the government played an active part in the development of the EU’s FLEGT Action Plan, and has been supporting the negotiation and implementation of Voluntary Partnership Agreements with producer countries.

The government has also been promoting the production and consumption of sustainable timber. It has a comprehensive procurement policy, established the Sustainable Trade Initiative and helped to launch the European Sustainable Tropical Timber Coalition.

As a result both of these government actions and of promotion by the private sector, there is a high proportion of certified wood-based products on the Dutch market as well as a large number of companies with chain-of-custody certification. A high level of media coverage on the issue of illegal logging also indicates that there is widespread awareness of this issue.

This response is thought to be partly responsible for the decline in imports into the Netherlands of timber-sector products likely to be illegal, currently estimated to comprise two per cent of the total. However, there has been a significant shift in the types and sources of high-risk products coming into the country, reflecting changes in the global timber industry: a growing proportion is coming from China and comprises more highly processed products such as furniture.

While the Netherlands has been one of the most proactive European countries in addressing illegal logging and the related trade, further action could be taken. A key challenge will be effective enforcement of the EU Timber Regulation given the Netherlands’ role as a major conduit for timber to the rest of Europe. Systematic monitoring of its timber procurement policy is also required.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in the United States

25 November 2014

Though the Lacey Act is an important piece of legislation for tackling the trade in illegal timber,  its impact on levels of illegal imports into the US is uncertain.

Dr Mari Momii, Independent Environmental Policy Analyst; Lecturer, Atomi University, Japan

20141124IllegalLoggingUSMomii.jpg

Uncut lumber sits stacked in the yard at the sawmill of the Doll Lumber Co. in Southington, Ohio, US. Photo by Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. 

Efforts to tackle the problem of illegal logging and related trade have continued in the United States; the Lacey Act amendments in 2008 have influenced behaviour within the industry and high-profile enforcement cases have increased awareness of the issue. 

The impact of the Lacey Act on levels of illegal imports into the US is uncertain. The proportion of imports of high-risk timber-sector products is estimated to have declined since 2010, while that of paper-sector products has stayed at about the same level: in 2013, high-risk imports were estimated to comprise five per cent and two per cent of the totals respectively. However, there has been a significant shift in the types and sources of high-risk products coming into the country, reflecting changes in the global timber industry: a growing proportion is coming from China and comprises more highly processed products such as furniture.

Though the Lacey Act is an important piece of legislation for tackling the trade in illegal timber, several implementation and enforcement challenges have arisen since the amendments were enacted, in particular the interpretation of ‘due care’. Improvements to the procedure for processing import declaration forms are also required to ensure effective enforcement of the act. In order to effectively tackle illegal logging and the related trade, the US government should also continue to encourage its trading partners to strengthen their forest governance.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in the United Kingdom

25 November 2014

The UK has been one of the most proactive European countries in addressing illegal logging and the related trade, and of the five consumer countries studied, it scored highest in the assessment of laws, regulations and policies related to this issue.

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

20141124IllegalLoggingUKBrack.jpg

Greenpeace activists demonstrate against the illegal importation of timber. Photo by Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade.

The United Kingdom has shown a strong response to the problem of illegal logging and related trade; of the five consumer countries studied, it scored highest in the assessment of laws, regulations and policies related to this issue.

The government played an active part in the development of the EU’s FLEGT Action Plan and has subsequently been supporting the negotiation and implementation of voluntary partnership agreements with producer countries. The government has also been providing a significant amount of funding, through the Forest Governance, Markets and Trade Programme, to initiatives aimed at tackling the trade in illegal timber and improving forest governance.

The private sector in the UK has also been proactive, as reflected in the increase in the number of companies with chain-of-custody certification and in the amount of certified wood-based products on the UK market. A high level of media coverage of illegal logging also indicates that there is widespread awareness of this issue.

This response is thought to be partly responsible for the decline in imports into the UK of timber-sector products likely to be illegal, currently estimated to comprise three per cent of the total. However, there has been a significant shift in the types and sources of high-risk products coming into the UK, reflecting changes in the global timber industry: a growing proportion is coming from China and comprises more highly processed products such as furniture.

While the UK has been one of the most proactive European countries in addressing illegal logging and the related trade, further action could be taken. Cooperation with the Chinese government and its private sector would be beneficial. Systematic monitoring of the UK’s timber procurement policy is also required, and the efforts made to date to enforce the EUTR will need to be maintained.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in France

25 November 2014

The response by the French government, as well as increased sourcing of sustainably certified products by the private sector, is thought to have been a factor in the decline in imports of timber-sector products likely to be illegal.

Laura Wellesley

Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

20141124IllegalLoggingFranceWellesley.jpg

A worker unloads timber in La Rochelle, France. Photo by: Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. 

The French government has been engaged on the issue of illegal logging and the related trade: the government played an active part in the development of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan and has been supporting the negotiation and implementation of voluntary partnership agreements (VPAs) in producer countries.

The government has also been actively promoting the production and consumption of sustainable timber, providing funding for forest-management related projects in producer countries and establishing the National Group on Tropical Forests to facilitate a multi-stakeholder dialogue on forest policy. Media coverage of illegal logging has increased considerably since 2007, indicating greater awareness of the issue among the general public.

This response, as well as increased sourcing of sustainably certified products by the private sector, is thought to have been a factor in the decline in imports into France of timber-sector products likely to be illegal. The proportion of timber-sector imports at high risk of illegality is currently estimated to be two per cent. The proportion of highly processed products such as furniture has grown significantly, as has the share coming from China, with a parallel decline in imports of logs and sawnwood from central and West Africa.

However, there remain a number of areas for improvement by the government. In particular, with legislation now in place to implement the EUTR, this should be rigorously enforced and sufficient resources put in place to enable this. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the sanctions regime should be monitored. The planned review of the public procurement policy should be undertaken, and monitoring of its implementation should also be introduced.


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Trade in Illegal Timber: The Response in Japan

25 November 2014

Japan's legality verification system, known as the goho-wood system, is not only voluntary but has serious design weaknesses which limit its ability to eliminate illegal products from Japan’s market.

Dr Mari Momii, Independent Environmental Policy Analyst; Lecturer, Atomi University, Japan

20141124IllegalLoggingJapanMomii.jpg

A worker walks near a log to be processed at the Okikura Lumber Mill facility, Tokyo, Japan. Photo by Getty Images.

This paper is part of a broader Chatham House study which assesses illegal logging and the associated trade. 

The Japanese government has continued to engage on the issue of illegal logging and related trade, but its approach remains focused on ‘soft’, voluntary measures rather than establishing legally binding requirements. It has been actively promoting the country’s legality verification system, known as the goho-wood system, and this is helping to raise awareness of the issue of illegal logging in Japan. However, the system is not only voluntary but has serious design weaknesses which limit its ability to eliminate illegal products from Japan’s market.

While the number of companies registered as goho-wood suppliers has increased, this may be occurring at the expense of sustainability certification, which is more demanding and expensive. The number of companies in Japan with FSC chain-of-custody certification remains low.

Japan’s imports of timber-sector products at high risk of illegality are estimated to have declined significantly since the start of the century, though levelling off since 2010, while imports of high-risk paper-sector products are estimated to have gradually increased over this period. Levels of high-risk imports remain significantly above those of the other consumer countries reviewed. These are currently estimated to comprise 12 per cent and seven per cent of total timber- and paper-sector products respectively.

It is recommended that the government develop further legislation to control imports of illegal products, including a requirement for risk assessment and mitigation as well as third-party monitoring. Such legislation would also help support the government’s policy to promote the domestic timber industry. Until such legislation is passed, Japanese industry should implement more robust risk assessment and mitigation procedures.


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Trade and Environmental Sustainability: Towards Greater Coherence

Invitation Only Research Event

27 February 2020 - 8:30am to 10:00am

Graduate Institute Geneva | Chemin Eugène-Rigot | Geneva | 1672 1211

The WTO Ministerial Conference in June 2020 presents a critical opportunity to move ahead on better alignment of trade and environmental sustainability objectives, policymaking and governance. In light of the challenges facing the WTO, meaningful efforts to address environmental sustainability would also help to reinvigorate the organization and strengthen its relevance. 

In this context, the meeting aims to advance discussion on two questions: How can the multilateral trade system better contribute to meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate goals? What priorities and tangible outcomes on trade and environmental sustainability should be advanced at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Nur Sultan in June and beyond?

The event will be hosted by the US and the Americas Programme and the Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy at Chatham House in partnership with both the Global Governance Centre and the Centre for Trade and Economic Integration at the Graduate Institute, Geneva.

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this event from the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum’s founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc and EY, and on the Graduate Institute side, from the government of Switzerland.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

US and Americas Programme


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Trade, Technology and National Security: Will Europe Be Trapped Between the US and China?

Invitation Only Research Event

2 March 2020 - 8:00am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Sir Simon Fraser, Managing Partner of Flint Global; Deputy Chairman, Chatham House
Chair: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

The US and China have entered into an increasingly confrontational relationship over trade and technology. This may force Europe to make difficult choices between the two economic superpowers – or perform a balancing act. Although the recent US-China phase-1 trade deal has eased the relationship for now, the trade and technology tensions are a structural issue and are likely to persist.

The debate over Huawei’s participation in 5G networks is an example of how the UK and other countries may face competing priorities in economic, security and foreign policy. Can Europe avoid a binary choice between the US and China? Is it possible for the EU to position itself as a third global power in trade, technology and standard-setting? What strategies should Europeans adopt to keep the US and China engaged in the rules-based international order and what does the future hold for trade multilateralism?

Sir Simon Fraser will join us for a discussion on Europe’s future role between the US and China. Sir Simon is Managing Partner of Flint Global and Deputy Chairman of Chatham House. He previously served as Permanent Secretary at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Head of the UK Diplomatic Service from 2010 to 2015. Prior to that he was Permanent Secretary at the UK Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. He has also served as Director General for Europe in the FCO and Chief of Staff to European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc, and EY for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

US and Americas Programme


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Trade Tensions Set to Continue in 2020

14 January 2020

Megan Greene

Dame Deanne Senior Fellow in International Economics
As the US faces off over trade with both China and the EU, expect another year of uncertainty.

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Unloading at a port in Zhangjiagang. Photo: Getty Images.

Global trade policy is not going back to the consensus that prevailed over the past few decades. Even if the growing cycle of tariffs and trade threats is tamed in 2020, the economic consensus that underpinned broad support for open trade is breaking down, and escalation in trade tensions is likely.

What next for the US and China?

The US and China are currently at the centre of these tensions. The equity and bond markets started 2020 off euphorically as news of a ‘phase one’ trade deal between the two dominated headlines. Such a deal involves the US reducing some previously imposed tariffs and tabling another round of threatened ones, while China agrees to buy more US goods, including agriculture. This represents a détente of sorts, but don’t expect it to last; trade between the two countries is not actually at the heart of their trade war.

The question instead is which country will have the biggest economy, based on excellence in industries such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and quantum computing. There is a national security component to this issue as well, given how much these high-tech industries feed into military and national security operations. This has increasingly become a concern for the United States as China has adopted a more aggressive regional stance, particularly in the South China Sea.

Tariffs have been used as a tool by both countries to try to prevent the other from dominating the global economy, and while they have dented both economies, they aren’t a particularly effective tool. In particular, tariffs do nothing to address US concerns about intellectual property rights in China, forced technology transfers and state subsidies for high tech industries. The phase one deal, therefore, is a superficial one that fails to get at the heart of the matter.

US–EU tensions

However, with a temporary US-China détente, the US may turn its attention to Europe. The EU and US are in the midst of negotiating a trade deal, but obstacles have been present from the start.

Last July, France adopted a 3% digital tax that applies to firms with global revenues over €750 million per annum generated from digital activities, of which €25 million are made in its territory. A US investigation determined that the digital tax discriminates against US companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook, and so the US has threatened France with 100% tariffs on luxury exports, including wine.

The long-standing tensions between the US and EU over their aircraft manufacturing behemoths, Boeing and Airbus, make reaching a US–EU trade deal more complicated. They also risk undermining US–EU collaboration on some joint concerns regarding China’s trade policies and practices.

The United States recently threatened to increase its punitive measures against European goods as retaliation for Airbus subsidies. The World Trade Organization (WTO) gave the US the green light to impose tariffs of up to 100% on $7.5 billion of EU exports last October, but the US had limited them to 10% on aircraft and 25% on industrial and agricultural products. Now, the US is threatening to escalate.

Finally, the US has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on imported cars from the EU. This threat looms large for Germany in particular, which is a significant producer of automobiles and whose industry is still recovering from the diesel emissions scandal. Germany has for the past two decades been the powerhouse economy in the EU, but has more recently seen sclerotic growth.

US election implications

It is an election year in the United States, and while it is too early to call the election (or even guess who the Democratic candidate might be), the ballot could bring about change on trade. Protectionism has historically been more of a Democrat policy than a Republican one, so there won’t be a complete reversal of Trump’s trade policy if a Democrat were to win. But there might be some changes.

If a Democrat controlled the White House, the US would still want to pressure China, but it might adopt a more international approach in that effort. The US might also reverse the steel and aluminium tariffs that kicked off these heightened trade tensions.

Most importantly, the US might stop hindering the WTO by appointing judges to the appellate body (without which the WTO cannot address rulings that are being appealed) and would likely work with other countries to reform the WTO. The focus would shift from confrontation to negotiation. This, of course, depends on which Democrat is in the White House.

In the meantime, President Trump has a difficult balancing act. Being tough on China and bringing home American jobs were successful slogans in his first presidential bid. He will want to indicate he has delivered on both and will continue to do so. At the same time, tariffs have sparked dips in the markets that have caused the president to de-escalate trade tensions. As the 2020 election approaches, expect the administration to balance these two concerns.

Looking beyond the vote, there may be some changes to the US approach to trade over the next decade, depending on which party is in government. The most pernicious aspect of the trade tensions on the global economy has been the uncertainty they have caused; businesses have deferred and delayed investment as they wait to see what the new rules of the global order are. They know the old consensus on trade won’t come back, but don’t yet know what the new consensus is.

As long as the limbo persists, and it probably will for at least a few more years, trade issues will remain a risk for the global economy.

This article is the first in a series of publications and roundtable discussions, part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.


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